OK, it might pass just a hair east of here. East of here is usually good because the west side of the storm is not as bad. But it would still be too close to be good. It would be too close to the eye of the storm.

I've been invited to go with a colleague and his family to stay with their family in Arkansas.

I understand that at this moment Katrina is a category 5. That may slip back down to 4 by the time of landfall. But if it doesn't, it would be only the third category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.... EVER.

New Orleans is going to flood. New Orleans has never had a direct hit from a category 3 or higher. (I could be making a mistake there: the guy on TV definitely said no direct hit from a "major" hurricane and I think he said that by major he meant 3 or higher. There was Betsy in 1965 which flooded the city and killed a lot of people, but it wasn't a "direct" hit.)

It's going to flood. That seems pretty much definite at this point, from what I'm hearing. It's below sea level and the pumps can only handle about one inch of water per hour. The levees go up 12 feet above sea level but the storm surge and waves are predicted to go up 18 feet. After the storm passes, the levees will still hold the water IN. And I've been hearing the most disgusting things about floodwater. Chemicals, animals, and .... well, other things.

Where I am is above sea level and NOT surrounded by water, not even particularly close to the lake (about 5-10 miles away). So flooding shouldn't be a major concern around here, I guess. I mean, I could imagine inches, but not feet.

On the other hand, the wind prediction last night was gusts up to 90, and now this morning they're saying it'll hold its speed after landfall, and the wind here will gust up to 140 or so. Good grief. 90mph is supposed to be "minimal" damage. 140 is pretty major.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

The tentative plan is to park my car in one colleague's covered carport. It's not enclosed, but being covered it should be a little safer. He's most likely going to his mom in Houston, 5 hours away. He'd let me park my car there and then I'd go to Arkansas in the other family's minivan. I offered to just drive my car, but they said it might be better to minimize traffic... I mean we have to do our part to reduce congestion.

I have to get ready to go. Breakfast, shower, throw together a bag with some undies and socks. I don't think I'm going to bring any "valuables" or too much food either. There's a leftover pizza, that might be OK for on-the-road food. And some bananas.

It might be possible to get back Monday night. If it's not possible then presumably the university will cancel classes on Tuesday also and I'll just come back then.

Like I said, this is unprecedented in Louisiana. So I picked an interesting time to move here: first, a solid month of way-above-average temperatures (above 90 for all of August, with humidity to match), and now the hurricane. With so much interesting stuff going on, I guess I'd better go to Arkansas for a night or two. We're leaving at noon. If I change plans I'll post here again. Otherwise, see y'all in a day or two.